Friday, February 5, 2010

Huge Snow Storm

Many of you already are aware of this. Huge storm to hit the east coast of the United States.

Powerhouse snowstorm to wallop the East... Developing...
Watches/Warnings...
RADAR...
Virginia declares state of emergency...
Snow clean-up burden for cash-strapped states...
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EARTH-DIRECTED ERUPTION?

NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft is tracking four active regions strung across the eastern hemisphere of the sun. Click on the image below to set the scene in motion--and keep an eye on number 4.

The movie shows an eruption of unstable magnetic loops. The blast occured around 0130 UT on February 5th and may have hurled some material in the general direction of Earth. (Our planet is off the right edge of the image.) The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has a direct view of the blast site and it may be able to help evaluate this possibility.

UPDATE:
There is a gap in SOHO image data spanning the time of the eruption. At present, there is no sign of a major CME heading toward Earth, but a lesser cloud could be en route. Polar sky watchers should be alert for auroras on or about Feb. 8th.
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HOW TO READ PROPAGATION NUMBERS

The A index [ LOW is GOOD ]

  • 1 to 6 is BEST
  • 7 to 9 is OK
  • 11 or more is BAD

Represents the overall geomagnetic condition of the ionosphere ("Ap" if averaged from the Kp-Index) (an average of the eight 3-hour K-Indices) ('A' referring to amplitude) over a given 24 hour period, ranging (linearly) typically from 1-100 but theoretically up to 400.

A lower A-Index generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; a low & steady Ap-Index generally suggest good propagation on the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

SFI index [ HIGH is GOOD ]

  • 70 NOT GOOD
  • 80 GOOD
  • 90 BETTER
  • 100+ BEST

The measure of total radio emissions from the sun at 10.7cm (2800 MHz), on a scale of 60 (no sunspots) to 300, generally corresponding to the sunspot level, but being too low in energy to cause ionization, not related to the ionization level of the Ionosphere.

Higher Solar Flux generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; Solar Flux rarely affects the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

K index [ LOW is GOOD ]

  • 0 or 1 is BEST
  • 2 is OK
  • 3 or more is BAD
  • 5 is VERY VERY BAD

The overall geomagnetic condition of the ionosphere ("Kp" if averaged over the planet) over the past 3 hours, measured by 13 magnetometers between 46 & 63 degrees of latitude, and ranging quasi-logarithmically from 0-9. Designed to detect solar particle radiation by its magnetic effect. A higher K-index generally means worse HF conditions.

A lower K-Index generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; a low & steady Kp-Index generally suggest good propagation on the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

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