Sunday, September 27, 2009

West Michigan Storms/ 9-27-09


Getting a great storm here in Muskegon.
Tonight, a strong cold front will rapidly cross Lower Michigan around midnight, preceded by a line of possibly severe thunderstorms between 7 PM to the northwest and 2 AM to the southeast. According to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), there is a Slight Risk for severe weather with large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds the main threats. Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible with these storms and are capable of producing wind damage, including downed trees and power lines.
A gale warning has been posted for all of Lake Michigan for late Sunday through Tuesday, where waves could reach 12-18 feet.

Colder and Very Windy Monday

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Muskegon
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Muskegon
High Wind Warning
Muskegon

Michigan Weather Updates

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
until 11:30 PM In effect for Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
until 6 AM Monday In effect for Muskegon, Montcalm, Ottawa, Kent, Ionia, Allegan, Barry, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun
Special Marine Warning
until 12:30 Monday In effect for Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren
Wind Advisory
2 AM Monday - 5 AM Tuesday In effect for Lake, Osceola, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Montcalm, Kent, Ionia, Barry, Kalamazoo, Calhoun
High Wind Warning
2 AM Monday - 5 AM Tuesday In effect for Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren
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HOW TO READ PROPAGATION NUMBERS

The A index [ LOW is GOOD ]

  • 1 to 6 is BEST
  • 7 to 9 is OK
  • 11 or more is BAD

Represents the overall geomagnetic condition of the ionosphere ("Ap" if averaged from the Kp-Index) (an average of the eight 3-hour K-Indices) ('A' referring to amplitude) over a given 24 hour period, ranging (linearly) typically from 1-100 but theoretically up to 400.

A lower A-Index generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; a low & steady Ap-Index generally suggest good propagation on the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

SFI index [ HIGH is GOOD ]

  • 70 NOT GOOD
  • 80 GOOD
  • 90 BETTER
  • 100+ BEST

The measure of total radio emissions from the sun at 10.7cm (2800 MHz), on a scale of 60 (no sunspots) to 300, generally corresponding to the sunspot level, but being too low in energy to cause ionization, not related to the ionization level of the Ionosphere.

Higher Solar Flux generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; Solar Flux rarely affects the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

K index [ LOW is GOOD ]

  • 0 or 1 is BEST
  • 2 is OK
  • 3 or more is BAD
  • 5 is VERY VERY BAD

The overall geomagnetic condition of the ionosphere ("Kp" if averaged over the planet) over the past 3 hours, measured by 13 magnetometers between 46 & 63 degrees of latitude, and ranging quasi-logarithmically from 0-9. Designed to detect solar particle radiation by its magnetic effect. A higher K-index generally means worse HF conditions.

A lower K-Index generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; a low & steady Kp-Index generally suggest good propagation on the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

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