Friday, August 26, 2011

Hurricane Irene Update (#3)

If Hurricane Irene proceeds as is currently forecast, then most people of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US States will be exposed to the worse storm conditions of their lifetime. For residents of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US States now is the time to prepare.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing warnings on category 2 Hurricane Irene. Tropical storm force winds are expected within the southern portion of the warning area along the United States east coast by late today. Hurricane force winds are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area tonight or Saturday morning, and then spread northward in the warning area through Saturday night. The latest five day precipitation forecast confirms the direction predicted in the last HPC forecast of the hurricane's path. The forecast moves a slightly greatest density of rain fall to the south. It shows the heaviest rainfall over eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, far east Pennsylvania, east southeast New York, Vermont, western Connecticut western Massachusetts, New Jersey, and northern New Hampshire with more than 14.8 to 8 inches forecast to fall along the greatest rainfall line. The nine panel Northern Hemisphere GFSx - NH - 500mb Hght/SLP plot and US loop is continues to show a major hurricane moving off the east coast of Florida up towards a North Carolina landfall then moving up the coast, but now diverges from HPC's forecast and shows the storm moving inland at the center of Long Island and then moving towards northern Maine. Currently, Irene has maximum winds of 110 MPH, hurricane force winds of that extend out 90 miles from the center, and tropical force winds of extend out to 290 miles. Irene is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, from eastern North Carolina into southeastern virgin, eastern Maryland, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania. New Jersey, southeastern New York, long island, western Connecticut, and western Massachusetts through Monday morning. These rains could cause widespread flooding and life-threatening flash floods. An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 11 feet above ground level in the hurricane warning area in North Carolina, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 8 feet above ground level over southern potions of the Chesapeake Bay, including tributaries, and the eastern shore of the Delmarva Peninsula. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 6 feet above ground level along the Jersey shore. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large, destructive, and life-threatening waves.

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HOW TO READ PROPAGATION NUMBERS

The A index [ LOW is GOOD ]

  • 1 to 6 is BEST
  • 7 to 9 is OK
  • 11 or more is BAD

Represents the overall geomagnetic condition of the ionosphere ("Ap" if averaged from the Kp-Index) (an average of the eight 3-hour K-Indices) ('A' referring to amplitude) over a given 24 hour period, ranging (linearly) typically from 1-100 but theoretically up to 400.

A lower A-Index generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; a low & steady Ap-Index generally suggest good propagation on the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

SFI index [ HIGH is GOOD ]

  • 70 NOT GOOD
  • 80 GOOD
  • 90 BETTER
  • 100+ BEST

The measure of total radio emissions from the sun at 10.7cm (2800 MHz), on a scale of 60 (no sunspots) to 300, generally corresponding to the sunspot level, but being too low in energy to cause ionization, not related to the ionization level of the Ionosphere.

Higher Solar Flux generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; Solar Flux rarely affects the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

K index [ LOW is GOOD ]

  • 0 or 1 is BEST
  • 2 is OK
  • 3 or more is BAD
  • 5 is VERY VERY BAD

The overall geomagnetic condition of the ionosphere ("Kp" if averaged over the planet) over the past 3 hours, measured by 13 magnetometers between 46 & 63 degrees of latitude, and ranging quasi-logarithmically from 0-9. Designed to detect solar particle radiation by its magnetic effect. A higher K-index generally means worse HF conditions.

A lower K-Index generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; a low & steady Kp-Index generally suggest good propagation on the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

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