Thursday, August 25, 2011

Hurricane Irene Update ( #1)

If Hurricane Irene proceeds as is currently forecast, then most people of the northeast coast will be exposed to the worse storm conditions of their lifetime. For residents of the eastern US coast now is the time to prepare.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing warnings on category 3 Hurricane Irene. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north by early Friday. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane will continue to move over the northwestern Bahamas today, and pass well offshore of the east coast of central and north Florida tonight and early Friday.. The five day precipitation forecast shows the greatest density of rain fall over Long Island, southern Connecticut and eastern New Jersey, with more than 10 inches forecast to fall. The nine panel Northern Hemisphere GFSx - NH - 500mb Hght/SLP plot and US loop is now showing a major hurricane moving off the east coast of Florida up towards a North Carolina landfall and moving towards a second Land fall on Long Island. Currently, Irene has maximum winds of 120 MPH, hurricane force winds of that extend out 70 miles from the center, and tropical force winds of extend out to 255 miles. Irene is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over the Bahamas during the next 36 hours. Rains will be diminishing across the Turks and Caicos Islands with additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches possible, bringing the maximum storm total to 6 to 12 inches. In areas of onshore winds near the center of Irene, an extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels over the Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

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The A index [ LOW is GOOD ]

  • 1 to 6 is BEST
  • 7 to 9 is OK
  • 11 or more is BAD

Represents the overall geomagnetic condition of the ionosphere ("Ap" if averaged from the Kp-Index) (an average of the eight 3-hour K-Indices) ('A' referring to amplitude) over a given 24 hour period, ranging (linearly) typically from 1-100 but theoretically up to 400.

A lower A-Index generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; a low & steady Ap-Index generally suggest good propagation on the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

SFI index [ HIGH is GOOD ]

  • 70 NOT GOOD
  • 80 GOOD
  • 90 BETTER
  • 100+ BEST

The measure of total radio emissions from the sun at 10.7cm (2800 MHz), on a scale of 60 (no sunspots) to 300, generally corresponding to the sunspot level, but being too low in energy to cause ionization, not related to the ionization level of the Ionosphere.

Higher Solar Flux generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; Solar Flux rarely affects the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

K index [ LOW is GOOD ]

  • 0 or 1 is BEST
  • 2 is OK
  • 3 or more is BAD
  • 5 is VERY VERY BAD

The overall geomagnetic condition of the ionosphere ("Kp" if averaged over the planet) over the past 3 hours, measured by 13 magnetometers between 46 & 63 degrees of latitude, and ranging quasi-logarithmically from 0-9. Designed to detect solar particle radiation by its magnetic effect. A higher K-index generally means worse HF conditions.

A lower K-Index generally suggests better propagation on the 10, 12, 15, 17, & 20 Meter Bands; a low & steady Kp-Index generally suggest good propagation on the 30, 40, 60, 80, & 160 Meter Bands.

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